Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

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  2. Kevin Wilson
  3. Dr Malcolm Farrow
Author(s)Wilson KJ, Farrow M
Publication type Article
JournalProceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
ISSN (print)1748-006X
ISSN (electronic)1748-0078
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Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from numbers of failures insimilar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a ratherindirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations.An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failuretimes.
PublisherSage Publications
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