The Burden of Mortality Attributable to Diabetes : Realistic estimates for the year 2000

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  2. Professor Nigel Unwin
  3. Dr Vincent Connolly
Author(s)Roglic G, Unwin N, Bennett PH, Mathers C, Tuomilehto J, Nag S, Connolly V, King H
Publication type Article
JournalDiabetes Care
ISSN (print)0149-5992
ISSN (electronic)1935-5548
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death. RESULTS: The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.
PublisherAmerican Diabetes Association
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