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Modelling the Relationship between Male and Female Pedestrian Accidents and Land Use Characteristics; a Case Study in the City of Newcastle upon Tyne
Lookup NU author(s)
Dr Dilum Dissanayake
Wedagama DMP, Bird R, Dissanayake D
Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
TRB 86th Annual Meeting
Washington DC, USA
Year of Conference
20-25 January 2007
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This paper describes a study into traffic accidents involving pedestrians of working age in the city of Newcastle upon Tyne, England. It seeks to model the relationship between accident location and spatial patterns of land use in the city, distinguishing between males and females of working ages, between weekdays and weekends and between working and leisure time. Data from the 2001 Census showed that most pedestrian journeys to work in Newcastle started and ended in the same ward (an administrative area of approximately 10km2). Prompted by this observation, the analysis sought a relationship between the frequency of pedestrian accidents and the proportion of land uses in each ward. Using digital mapping, a geographic information system and standard government land use classification, the proportion of each type of land use in each ward was determined. Accident data were taken from the local traffic accident data unit for the period between 1998 and 2001 for all accidents involving pedestrians of working age (16-64 for men and 16-59 for women). Demographic data were taken from the UK Census 2001. Generalised Linear models were developed using the number of pedestrian accidents including both men and women of working age as response variables and census and land use data as explanatory variables. Sensitivity analysis using the models showed that an increase of 1% in the proportion of retail land use in a ward will, on average, lead to an increase of between 24% and 68% in the number of accidents involving pedestrians of working age.
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