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The CREW project: Towards a toolkit for the use of probabilistic climate change projections

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Stephen Blenkinsop, Stuart Hallett, Professor Hayley Fowler

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Abstract

The CREW (Community Resilience to Extreme Weather) project aims to develop a set of tools for improving the capacity for resilience of local communities in south-east London to the impacts of extreme weather events. Here, probabilistic projections of local climate derived using the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator for two future time periods, the 2020s and 2050s and assuming a medium emissions trajectory are presented. These show that by the 2050s the central estimate of mean July maximum temperature is projected to increase by ~3°C whilst precipitation is projected to decrease by ~21%. Within CREW these changes are applied to produce probabilistic projections of a series of weather-related hazards, demonstrated here by the vulnerability to clay related soil subsidence which is in part related to the Potential Soil Moisture Deficit (PSMD). By the 2020s increased vulnerability is likely across the south and particularly south-east of the region and by the 2050s this is extended to the central part of the region. These changes are illustrated within the wider context of the CREW project, particularly its aims to develop a toolkit to allow different users to evaluate potential impacts, manage the impacts on the ground and develop intervention strategies.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Blenkinsop S, Hallett S, Truckell I, Fowler HJ

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Publication status: Published

Conference Name: BHS Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment

Year of Conference: 2010


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