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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Joao Filipe
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks,e.g. via livestock movements, generally show that central large-sizeholdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order toreduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may notbe economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together withrisks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain.Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle andswine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventingoutbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of marketdisruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on positionalong the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggestthat trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks,which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. Weassess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions fromthe perspectives of regulatorsand the market, using percolation analysis.We show that preferentiallytargeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when thecosts to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Ourstudy highlights the importance of assessing joint economic–epidemiologicalrisks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade.
Author(s): Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Gilligan CA, Monod H, Belloc C, Ezanno P, Filipe JAN, Vergu E
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Print publication date: 01/03/2016
Online publication date: 16/03/2016
Acceptance date: 22/02/2016
Date deposited: 23/11/2016
ISSN (print): 1742-5689
ISSN (electronic): 1742-5662
Publisher: Royal Society Publishing
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