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Preoperative risk factors for conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy: a validated risk score derived from a prospective U.K. database of 8820 patients

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Sarah Robinson, Paul Gallagher

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Abstract

© 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Background Laparoscopic cholecystectomy is commonly performed, and several factors increase the risk of open conversion, prolonging operating time and hospital stay. Preoperative stratification would improve consent, scheduling and identify appropriate training cases. The aim of this study was to develop a validated risk score for conversion for use in clinical practice. Patients and methods Preoperative patient and disease-related variables were identified from a prospective cholecystectomy database (CholeS) of 8820 patients, divided into main and validation sets. Preoperative predictors of conversion were identified by multivariable binary logistic regression. A risk score was developed and validated using a forward stepwise approach. Results Some 297 procedures (3.4%) were converted. The risk score was derived from six significant predictors: age (p = 0.005), sex (p < 0.001), indication for surgery (p < 0.001), ASA (p < 0.001), thick-walled gallbladder (p = 0.040) and CBD diameter (p = 0.004). Testing the score on the validation set yielded an AUROC = 0.766 (p < 0.001), and a score >6 identified patients at high risk of conversion (7.1% vs. 1.2%). Conclusion This validated risk score allows preoperative identification of patients at six-fold increased risk of conversion to open cholecystectomy.


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Author(s): Sutcliffe RP, Hollyman M, Hodson J, Bonney G, Vohra RS, Griffiths EA, Fenwick S, Elmasry M, Nunes Q, Kennedy D, Khan RB, Khan MAS, Magee CJ, Jones SM, Mason D, Parappally CP, Mathur P, Saunders M, Jamel S, Haque SUL, Zafar S, Shiwani MH, Samuel N, Dar F, Jackson A, Lovett B, Dindyal S, Winter H, Rahman S, Wheatley K, Nieto T, Ayaani S, Youssef H, Nijjar RS, Watkin H, Naumann D, Emeshi S, Sarmah PB, Lee K, Joji N, Heath J, Teasdale RL, Weerasinghe C, Needham PJ, Welbourn H, Forster L, Finch D, Blazeby JM, Robb W, McNair AGK, Hrycaiczuk A, Charalabopoulos A, Kadirkamanathan S, Tang C-B, Jayanthi NVG, Noor N, Dobbins B, Cockbain AJ, Nilsen-Nunn A, de Siqueira J, Pellen M, Cowley JB, Ho W-M, Miu V, White TJ, Hodgkins KA, Kinghorn A, Tutton MG, Al-Abed YA, Menzies D, Ahmad A, Reed J, Khan S, Monk D, Vitone LJ, Murtaza G, Joel A, Brennan S, Shier D, Zhang C, Yoganathan T, Robinson SJ, McCallum IJD, Jones MJ, Elsayed M, Tuck L, Wayman J, Carney K, Aroori S, Hosie KB, Kimble A, Bunting DM, Hosie KB, Fawole AS, Basheer M, Dave RV, Sarveswaran J, Jones E, Kendal C, Tilston MP, Gough M, Wallace T, Singh S, Downing J, Mockford KA, Issa E, Shah N, Chauhan N, Wilson TR, Forouzanfar A, Wild JRL, Nofal E, Bunnell C, Madbak K, Rao STV, Devoto L, Siddiqi N, Khawaja Z, Hewes JC, Gould L, Chambers A, Rodriguez DU, Sen G, Robinson S, Carney K, Bartlett F, Rae DM, Stevenson TEJ, Sarvananthan K, Dwerryhouse SJ, Higgs SM, Old OJ, Hardy TJ, Shah R, Hornby ST, Keogh K, Frank L, Al-Akash M, Upchurch EA, Frame RJ, Hughes M, Jelley C, Weaver S, Roy S, Sillo TO, Galanopoulos G, Cuming T, Cunha P, Tayeh S, Kaptanis S, Heshaishi M, Eisawi A, Abayomi M, Ngu WS, Fleming K, Bajwa DS, Chitre V, Aryal K, Ferris P, Silva M, Lammy S, Mohamed S, Khawaja A, Hussain A, Ghazanfar MA, Bellini MI, Ebdewi H, Elshaer M, Gravante G, Drake B, Ogedegbe A, Mukherjee D, Arhi C, Giwa L, Iqbal N, Watson NF, Aggarwal SK, Orchard P, Villatoro E, Willson PD, Mok KWJ, Woodman T, Deguara J, Garcea G, Babu BI, Dennison AR, Malde D, Lloyd D, Slavin JP, Jones RP, Ballance L, Gerakopoulos S, Jambulingam P, Mansour S, Sakai N, Acharya V, Sadat MM, Karim L, Larkin D, Amin K, Khan A, Law J, Jamdar S, Smith SR, Sampat K, O'shea KM, Manu M, Asprou FM, Malik NS, Chang J, Johnstone M, Lewis M, Roberts GP, Karavadra B, Photi E, Hewes J, Gould L, Chambers A, Rodriguez D, O'Reilly DA, Rate AJ, Sekhar H, Henderson LT, Starmer BZ, Coe PO, Tolofari S, Barrie J, Bashir G, Sloane J, Madanipour S, Halkias C, Trevatt AEJ, Borowski DW, Hornsby J, Courtney MJ, Virupaksha S, Seymour K, Robinson S, Hawkins H, Bawa S, Gallagher PV, Reid A, Wood P, Finch JG, Finch JG, Parmar J, Stirland E, Gardner-Thorpe J, Al-Muhktar A, Peterson M, Majeed A, Bajwa FM, Martin J, Choy A, Tsang A, Pore N, Andrew DR, Al-Khyatt W, Santosh Bhandari CT, Chambers A, Subramanium D, Toh SKC, Carter NC, Mercer SJ, Knight B, Vijay V, Alagaratnam S, Sinha S, Khan S, El-Hasani SS, Hussain AA, Bhattacharya V, Kansal N, Fasih T, Jackson C, Siddiqui MN, Chishti IA, Fordham IJ, Siddiqui Z, Bausbacher H, Geogloma I, Gurung K, Tsavellas G, Basynat P, Shrestha AK, Basu S, Chhabra A, Harilingam M, Rabie M, Akhtar M, Kumar P, Jafferbhoy SF, Hussain N, Raza S, Haque M, Alam I, Aseem R, Patel S, Asad M, Booth MI, Ball WR, Wood CPJ, Pinho-Gomes AC, Kausar A, Obeidallah M, Varghase J, Lodhia J, Bradley D, Rengifo C, Lindsay D, Gopalswamy S, Finlay I, Wardle S, Bullen N, Iftikhar SY, Awan A, Ahmed J, Leeder P, Fusai G, Bond-Smith G, Psica A, Puri Y, Hou D, Noble F, Szentpali K, Broadhurst J, Date R, Hossack MR, Goh YL, Turner P, Shetty V, Riera M, Macano CAW, Sukha A, Preston SR, Hoban JR, Puntis DJ, Williams SV, Krysztopik R, Kynaston J, Batt J, Doe M, Goscimski A, Jones GH, Smith SR, Hall C, Carty N, Ahmed J, Panteleimonitis S, Gunasekera RT, Sheel ARG, Lennon H, Hindley C, Reddy M, Kenny R, Elkheir N, McGlone ER, Rajaganeshan R, Hancorn K, Hargreaves A, Prasad R, Longbotham DA, Vijayanand D, Wijetunga I, Ziprin P, Nicolay CR, Yeldham G, 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McCune K, Loughlin P, Lawther R, Byrnes CK, Simpson DJ, Mawhinney A, Warren C, McKay D, McIlmunn C, Martin S, MacArtney M, Diamond T, Davey P, Jones C, Clements JM, Digney R, Chan WM, McCain S, Gull S, Janeczko A, Dorrian E, Harris A, Dawson S, Johnston D, McAree B, Ghareeb E, Thomas G, Connelly M, McKenzie S, Cieplucha K, Spence G, Campbell W, Hooks G, Bradley N, Hill ADK, Cassidy JT, Boland M, Burke P, Nally DM, Hill ADK, Khogali E, Shabo W, Iskandar E, McEntee GP, O'Neill MA, Peirce C, Lyons EM, O'Sullivan AW, Thakkar R, Carroll P, Ivanovski I, Balfe P, Lee M, Winter DC, Kelly ME, Hoti E, Maguire D, Karunakaran P, Geoghegan JG, Martin ST, Cross KS, Cooke F, Zeeshan S, Murphy JO, Mealy K, Mohan HM, Nedujchelyn Y, Ullah MF, Ahmed I, Giovinazzo F, Milburn J, Prince S, Brooke E, Buchan J, Khalil AM, Vaughan EM, Ramage MI, Aldridge RC, Gibson S, Nicholson GA, Vass DG, Grant AJ, Holroyd DJ, Jones A, Sutton CMLR, O'Dwyer P, Nilsson F, Weber B, Williamson TK, Lalla K, Bryant A, Carter R, 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Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: HPB

Year: 2016

Volume: 18

Issue: 11

Pages: 922-928

Print publication date: 01/11/2016

Online publication date: 30/08/2016

Acceptance date: 28/07/2016

ISSN (print): 1365-182X

ISSN (electronic): 1477-2574

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

URL: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.hpb.2016.07.015

DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2016.07.015


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