Lookup NU author(s): Dr Kevin Wilson
This is the final published version of an article that has been published in its final definitive form by International Society for Bayesian Analysis, 2018.
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We consider the specification of an informative prior distribution for the probabilities in a multinomial model. We utilise vine copulas: flexible multivariate distributions built using bivariate copulas stacked in a tree structure. We take advantage of a specific vine structure, called a D-vine, to separate the specification of the multivariate prior distribution into that of marginal distributions for the probabilities and parameter values for the bivariate copulas in the vine. We provide guidance on each of the choices to be made in the prior specification and each of the questions to ask the expert to specify the model parameters within the context of an engineering application. We then give full details of the approach for the general problem.
Author(s): Wilson KJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Bayesian Analysis
Online publication date: 09/10/2017
Acceptance date: 15/08/2017
Date deposited: 10/10/2017
ISSN (print): 1936-0975
ISSN (electronic): 1931-6690
Publisher: International Society for Bayesian Analysis
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