Lookup NU author(s): Dr Alistair Ford,
Professor Stuart Barr,
Professor Richard Dawson,
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
In order to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on urban areas, tools to assist decision-makers to understand future patterns of risk are required. This paper presents a modelling framework to allow the downscaling of national- and regional-scale population and employment projections to local scale land-use changes, providing scenarios of future socio-economic change. A coupled spatial interaction population model and cellular automata land development model produces future urbanisation maps based on planning policy scenarios. The framework is demonstrated on Greater London, UK, with a set of future population and land-use scenarios being tested against flood risk under climate change. The framework is developed in Python using open-source databases and is designed to be transferable to other cities worldwide.
Author(s): Ford A, Barr S, Dawson R, Virgo J, Batty M, Hall J
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems
Print publication date: 01/05/2019
Online publication date: 28/02/2019
Acceptance date: 14/02/2019
Date deposited: 06/03/2019
ISSN (print): 0198-9715
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