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Assessing Volcanic Risk to Transport Networks – The case of Merapi, Indonesia

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Sean Wilkinson, Dr Jaime Amezaga

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Abstract

Recent eruptions have demonstrated the inadequacy of current volcanic ash contingency plans (VACP) to maintain transport performance at acceptable levels. A significant contributor to this situation results from the fact that there is currently no methodology to comprehensively assess risks to the transport sector and therefore no way of establishing risk based scenarios with which to compare different VACP strategies. This paper presents a framework that quantifies the risk to the transport sector from volcanic ash events and therefore can be used to evaluate the efficacy and efficiency of transport infrastructure contingency plans. The model consists of an exposure module of relevant transport infrastructure, three hazard scenarios, specifically ~5-year event, ~100-year event, a road operability curve relating maximum safe speed with depth of volcanic ash and a traffic flow model that calculates normal and disrupted travel times. The final model is applied to the region around the city of Yogyakarta which is threatened by the Merapi volcano and is used to rank three contingency actions 1) rerouting, 2) modal shift and 3) clean-up operations. The simulations demonstrate how the model is able to calculate the efficiency of transport operations using different contingency measures and how the best contingency action depends on the magnitude of the hazard. The paper concludes by demonstrating how this information could be used to support the improvement of existing policy instruments. While we have considered volcanic hazard, we describe how the framework can be applied to seismic hazard using earthquake intensity information.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Rezki M, Wilkinson S, Jenkins SF, Amezaga J

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Publication status: Published

Conference Name: 2019 Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Year of Conference: 2019

Online publication date: 04/04/2019

Acceptance date: 02/04/2016

Publisher: New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering

URL: https://www.confer.nz/pcee2019/


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