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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Kevin Wilson, Dr Malcolm Farrow
This is the authors' accepted manuscript of an article that has been published in its final definitive form by Taylor & Francis, 2021.
For re-use rights please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
Manufacturers are required to demonstrate that products meet reliability targets. A wayto achieve this is with reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), where a number of products areput on test and the test is passed or failed according to a decision rule based on the observedoutcomes. There are various methods for determining the sample size for RDTs, typicallybased on the power of a hypothesis test following the RDT or risk criteria. Bayesian riskcriteria approaches combine the choice of sample size with the analysis of the test data whilerelying on the specification of acceptable and rejectable reliability levels. In this paper weoffer an alternative approach to sample size determination based on the idea of assurance. Thisapproach chooses the sample size to provide a specified probability that the RDT will result ina successful outcome. It separates the design and analysis of the RDT, allowing different priorsfor the producer and consumer. We develop the assurance approach for sample size calculationsin RDTs for binomial and Weibull likelihoods and propose appropriate prior distributions forthe design and analysis of the test. In each case, we illustrate the approach with an examplebased on real data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Author(s): Wilson KJ, Farrow M
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Technometrics
Year: 2021
Volume: 63
Issue: 4
Pages: 523-535
Print publication date: 01/10/2021
Online publication date: 23/12/2020
Acceptance date: 05/12/2020
Date deposited: 07/12/2020
ISSN (print): 0040-1706
ISSN (electronic): 1537-2723
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2020.1867646
DOI: 10.1080/00401706.2020.1867646
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