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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Elisabetta Cherchi
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© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. An often-overlooked problem in the evaluation and prediction of congestion charge policies is commuters’ bounded rationality. Although some studies have sought to account for this using cumulative prospect theory (CPT), the specific behavioral parameters that reflect travelers’ decision-making process in response to congestion charge scenarios are based on assumptions and lack empirical evidence. This paper aims to provide empirical evidence to define the shape parameters in CPT—while accounting for systematic heterogeneity due to commuters’ characteristics—in order to build more realistic behavioral models for car commuters’ departure time choice behavior under congestion charge scenarios. A stated preference (SP) experiment with four time-based congestion charge scenarios is designed to obtain commuters’ departure time choices when facing uncertain travel conditions. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to estimate the CPT coefficients that reflect car commuters’ cognitive biases under the congestion charge. The results suggest that commuters’ departure time choice under the congestion charge policy is consistent with the assumption of CPT. We find evidence of risk-averse and risk-taking behavior, loss aversion, and large distortion in probability weighting, and individuals’ personal and commuting characteristics had heterogeneous effects on CPT coefficients. The results shed light on travelers’ behavioral responses to congestion charge schemes and provide an important empirical reference.
Author(s): Geng K, Wang Y, Cherchi E, Guarda P
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Year: 2023
Volume: 168
Print publication date: 01/02/2023
Online publication date: 31/12/2022
Acceptance date: 20/12/2022
ISSN (print): 0965-8564
ISSN (electronic): 1879-2375
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2022.103564
DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.103564
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