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Fewer, but More Intense, Future Tropical Storms Over the Ganges and Mekong Basins

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Haider Ali, Professor Hayley Fowler

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

Abstract

© 2023. The Authors. Understanding climate change impacts on Tropical Storm (TS) activity is crucial for effective adaptation planning and risk assessment, particularly in densely populated low-lying delta rivers basins like the Ganges and Mekong. The change to TS characteristics with warming is uncertain due to limitations in global climate model resolution and process-representation and storm tracking algorithms (trackers). Here, we used 13 HighResMIP models and two trackers to estimate the uncertainty in projections of TS characteristics. We found different trackers producing qualitatively similar but quantitatively different results. Our results show a decline (median ∼52%) in the frequency of TS but increase in the strongest TS and Available Cyclone Energy (ACE) of TS over both basins. The higher-resolution models extract TS with much higher intensity and ACE values compared to the lower-resolution models. These results have implications for adaptation planning and risk assessment for TS and suggest the need for further high-resolution modeling studies.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Ali H, Fowler HJ, Vanniere B, Roberts MJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters

Year: 2023

Volume: 50

Issue: 17

Print publication date: 16/09/2023

Online publication date: 31/08/2023

Acceptance date: 10/07/2023

Date deposited: 13/09/2023

ISSN (print): 0094-8276

ISSN (electronic): 1944-8007

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc.

URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104973

DOI: 10.1029/2023GL104973

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