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The international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture: Past performance and future projections

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Matthew Gorton

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Abstract

The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000 - 02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: Baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which was applied to quantify the implications of the 2004 EU accession. The analysis indicates that accession will have a negative impact on the international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture by increasing land and labour prices. To maintain competitiveness in the arable sector, Hungary will need to achieve dynamic improvements in productivity to offset the effect of higher factor costs. The dairy sector, under all scenarios, is likely to remain internationally uncompetitive. © 2006 Centre for Research into Post-Communist Economies.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Gorton M, Davidova S, Banse M, Bailey A

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Post-Communist Economies

Year: 2006

Volume: 18

Issue: 1

Pages: 69-84

ISSN (print): 1463-1377

ISSN (electronic): 1465-3958

Publisher: Routledge

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14631370500505289

DOI: 10.1080/14631370500505289


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