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Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed. (C) 1998 Royal Meteorological Society.
Author(s): Kilsby CG, Cowpertwait PSP, O'Connell PE, Jones PD
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: International Journal of Climatology
Print publication date: 01/04/1998
ISSN (print): 0899-8418
ISSN (electronic): 1097-0088
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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