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Testing different land-use and transport scenarios towards meeting the requirements of future British settlement patterns: The SOLUTIONS case study of Tyne and Wear

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Paulus Aditjandra, Dr Steven Wright, Professor John Nelson


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Alongside economic and population growth as well as the trend towards smaller household size for dwellings in Great Britain, the Government has as yet to make clear decisions on how to build our future settlements. Whilst London is clearly a world-class capital with many examples of successful transport infrastructure, other British cities have experienced a much slower phasing of transport infrastructure but are likely to experience pressures from population growth and/or increased numbers of dwellings in the medium-term. SOLUTIONS, an EPSRC project, has examined a set of future trends of development using a land-use and transport integrated model to test different land-use and transport scenarios for three different regions. This paper is derived from one of the case study areas of SOLUTIONS which has been carried out in the Tyne and Wear metropolitan area. The land-use scenarios tested includes: the trend, compaction and dispersal. The time frame used in the study is within 30 years horizon from the base year 2000 up to the year 2031. The trend scenario is assuming continuation of current land use planning policy and transport investment evenly mixed between highways and public transport up to 2031. The compaction scenario concentrates projected new dwellings and employment floorspace in central areas in a controlled fashion and assumes that all the projected transport funding is spent on public transport infrastructure. The dispersal scenario assumes a relaxation in planning legislation allowing new dwellings and employment floorspace to be located where the market demands and that all the projected transport funding is spent on highways improvements to accommodate the more dispersed travel demands that result. Furthermore the impacts of introducing road user charging (RUC) is also tested on each of the different scenarios. The results of the transport modeling show that if no change in policy had been taken (the trend scenario) then car trips are forecast to increase by 19% and public transport decrease by 7% along with a walking and cycling decrease by 18% during the morning peak period. The dispersal scenario shows similar output to the trend scenario with a small swing towards more car use and slightly less public transport use. The compaction scenario suggests an increase in public transport use of over 10%. However, the system wide costs and benefits suggest that the compaction option is far more costly from an economic development perspective. This full systems approach is central to the conclusions and policy guidance resulting from the work. Despite the many criticisms of the use of integrated land-use and transport model to forecast travel demand, especially for not being sensitive to the walking and cycling traffic, the model had demonstrated how a region can be affected by different land use policies combined with transport investment schemes. Local authorities of Tyne and Wear address this issue using strategic corridor approach to enable accessibility for all modes of transport (LTP, 2007). Thus, alongside the integrated transport corridor approach which is expected to be sensitive to local neighbourhoods as reported from the Local Transport Plan (LTP), a look at the regional transport issue can be addressed using the model, therefore to ease the regional authorities to keep controlling the growth of car traffic whilst meeting the expected regional economic and environmental goals. Whilst the literature from across the Atlantic shows that land-use planning has not much impact at the macro level (Badoe and Miller, 2000), the British case study has as yet to report of what is the evidence. The proposed paper is aiming to address this gap.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Aditjandra PT, Wright SD, Nelson JD

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Conference Name: RGS-IBG Annual Conference

Year of Conference: 2009

Publisher: Royal Geogprahical Society