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A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Chris Kilsby, John Richmond, Alistair Ford, Professor Hayley Fowler, Philip James

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Abstract

This paper describes the development of a weather generator for use in climate impact assessments of agricultural and water system management. The generator produces internally consistent series of meteorological variables including: rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine, as well as derivation of potential evapotranspiration. The system produces series at a daily time resolution, using two stochastic models in series: first, for rainfall which produces an output series which is then used for a second model generating the other variables dependent on rainfall. The series are intended for single sites defined nationally across the UK at a 5km resolution, but can be generated to be representative across small catchments (<1000 km2). Scenarios can be generated for the control period (1961-1990) based on observed data, as well as for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) scenarios for three time slices (2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s). Future scenarios are generated by fitting the models to observations which have been perturbed by application of change factors derived from the UKCIP02 mean projected changes in that variable. These change factors are readily updated, as new scenarios become available, and with suitable calibration data the approach could be extended to any geographical region.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL

Publication type: Article

Journal: Environmental Modelling and Software

Year: 2007

Volume: 22

Issue: 12

Pages: 1705-1719

Print publication date: 26/04/2007

ISSN (print): 1364-8152

ISSN (electronic): 1873-6726

Publisher: Pergamon

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.005

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.005


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